Tracey, T. J., & Sedlacek, W. E. (1987). Prediction of college graduation using
noncognitive variables by race. Measurement and Evaluation in
Counseling and Development, 19, 177‑184.
PREDICTION OF COLLEGE
GRADUATION USING
NONCOGNITIVE VARIABLES BY
RACE
Paper presented at the
annual meeting of the American Educational Research Association,
PREDICTION OF COLLEGE GRADUATION USING NONCOGNITIVE VARIABLES BY RACE
SUMMARY
Random samples of 1979 and 1980
entering freshmen were given the Non-Cognitive Questionnaire (NCQ) which was
designed to assess noncognitive dimensions predicting minority student academic
success (Sedlacek & Brooks, 1976). The validity of the NCQ in predicting
graduation after five end six years was determined. The graduation rate was
found to differ significantly for black and white students, with black students
showing lower graduation
rates. A trend was found with respect to black
students taking slightly longer to graduate than whites. The relationship of
each of the NCQ dimensions and the traditional predictors of SAT scores to
graduation was examined separately for each year x race sample using step-wise discriminant analyses. SAT scores were not found to be
related to graduation in any of the samples. The NCQ dimensions were found to
be fairly predictive for both races, but
especially for the
black examples The dimensions of academic self-confidence and community service
were found predictive of graduation for both black and white students. In
addition, expectations of difficulty due to racism, support for academic plans
perseverance, and academic motivation were found to be predictive at eventual
graduation for black students.
3
A persistent problem in higher education is the differential attrition rate among students of different racial/ethnic backgrounds. Of particular concern is the attrition rate of black students relative to whites. The rates of persistence are much lower for black students (Astin, 1975, 1978, 1982; Sedlacek & Pelham, 1976), especially for those black students enrolled in predominately white institutions (Goodrich, 1978; Webster, 1978). These differences in persistence have not been found to be related to traditional ability measures (Astin, 1982; Tracey & Sedlacek, 1984, 1985). It has often been concluded that these differences are reflective of the different process involved in achieving academic success between majority and minority students. To succeed in predominately white institutions requires very different skills for black students than white students because the environment is not the same for each (Fleming, 1984; Loo & Rolison, 1986).
These
conclusions have led researchers to examine the similarity of the academic
success process between black and white students. There is some current debate
on the validity of the conclusion that the educational attainment process is
different for the different races. Some researchers have found evidence for the
different patterns in educational success between black and
Noncognitive Variables
4
white students
(e.g., Portes & Wilson, 1976), while others have
concluded that the process is similar (Gottfredson,
1981; Wolfle, 1985). However, this literature tended
to focus on educational attainment in general, not just higher education, and
uses variables of a more demographic, sociological nature, e.g., parents’ educational attainment.
In
reaction to focusing on these demographic variables, or on traditional ability
measures (e.g., SAT or ACT scores and high school grades), many practitioners
and researchers are examining more individual, noncognitive variables that
might be related to academic success in higher education. Increasingly, the
relationship of noncognitive dimensions to academic success (both with respect
to grade point average and persistence) has been substantiated in the
literature (Arken, 1964; Astin,
1975; Beasley & Sease, 1974; Clark & Plotkin, 1964; Gelso &
Rowell, 1967; Gibbs, 1973; Messick, 1979; Nelson,
Scott, & Bryan, 1984; Pascarella & Chapman,
1983;
Pacarella, Duby,
& Iverson, 1983; Pruitt, 1973; Tinto, 1975).
Sedlacek
and Brooks (1976) have hypothesized that noncognitive variables would be even
more relevant for black students than whites. Specifically, they reviewed the
literature and proposed seven dimensions that would be related to black student
academic success in predominately white colleges. The seven dimensions ere: (1 ) positive self-concept, (2) realistic self-appraisal, (3)
5
understanding of and ability to deal with racism, (4) preference of long-range goals over more immediate, short-term needs, (5) availability of a strong support person, (6) successful leadership experience, and (7) demonstrated community service. Tracey and Sedlacek (1984, 1985) assessed the validity of each of these dimensions (as well as an eighth dimension called academic familiarity) with respect to both grades and persistence for both black and white students. They found strong support for the variables in predicting future grades for both races, but the strongest result was the relationship of these variables to persistence for black students. These variables were highly related to continuing enrollment for black students, while SAT scores were not. The noncognitive variables were also related to persistence for white students but to a lesser degree. Further, Tracey and Sedlacek found that different noncognitive dimensions more related to academic success for blacks at different points in their college careers. Early black student persistence was found to be related to having strong support for educational plans, and preference for long-range goals, as well as positive self-concept and realistic self-appraisal which were also found to relate to persistence throughout the college years. Later persistence (after two and three years) was related to an ability to understand and deal with racism, and demonstrated community service.
Noncognitive Variables
6
The
purpose of this study was to examine the validity of these noncognitive
dimensions for predicting college graduation. It is noteworthy that an
increasing amount of the research concerning variables related to academic
success in higher education has gone beyond first year performance (e.g., Farver, Sedlacek, & Books, 1975; Wilson, 1980, 1981,
1983), however studies actually examining graduation appear to be rare.
Although all measures are used with the intent of decreasing attrition and
increasing graduation, few studies examine the validity of measures with
respect to this criterion. The present study was an attempt to validate the
noncognitive dimensions with respect to graduation for both black and white
students. Since many students do not graduate in four years, graduation
after five and six years were examined.
Al1 1979 entering freshmen and a random sample (approximately 25%) of the 1980 entering freshmen who attended summer orientation at a large, predominately white, eastern state university were sampled. Those students who attended summer orientation typically represent 90% of the entering freshmen. These samples were administered the Non-Cognitive Questionnaire (NCQ). Only these students whose enrollment/graduation status as of July, 1985 was available from university records were selected for inclusion in
7
this study. This resulted in 89% of the original sample being included here. The resulting samples were N=1262 (1137 whites and 125 blacks) for the 1979 entrants and N=504 (415 whites and 89 blacks) for the 1980 entrants.
The
validity of the NCQ in predicting graduation status after six years for the
1979 entrants and after five years for the 1980 entreats years determined.
Instruments
Non-Cognitive
Questionnaire (NCQ) was designed to assess the seven factors hypothesized
by Sedlacek and Brooks (1976) to be related to minority student academic
success as well as the added dimension of general academic familiarity, which
was defined as the extent to which a student's extracurricular activities and
interests related to formal academic subjects. The seven non-cognitive
dimensions were: (a) global positive self-concept as related to expectations
for the coming years, (h) realistic self-appraisal, especially with respect to
academic abilities, (e) an understanding of racism and an ability to deal With
it, (d) an ability to work toward longer-term goals rather than more immediate,
short-term ones, (e) availability of people supportive of one's academic goals
(f) successful leadership experience in either organized or informal groups and
(g) demonstrated community service indicated by involvement in local community
Noncognitive Variables
8
and/or church activities during the yearn prior to college. NCQ consists of 23 items, including two categorical items on educational aspirations, 18 Likert-type items on expectations regarding college and self-assessment, and three open-ended items requesting information on present goals, past accomplishments, and other activities. All items were found to have adequate test-retest reliabilities (two-week estimates ranging from .70 to .94 for each item with a median value of .85) (Tracey & Sedlacek, 1984).
The
open-ended items were rated by two judges for the following variables (with interrater reliability estimates prevented in parentheses):
long range goals (r=.89, academic relatedness goals (r=.83), degree of
difficulty of the listed accomplishments (r=.88), overall number of outside
activities (r=1.00), leadership (r=.89), academic relatedness of activities
(r=.98), and community involvement (r=.94).
Tracey
and Sedlacek (1984) found good support for the construct validity of the NCQ
using factor analysis. Their factor analysis yielded eight factors which
closely approximated the hypothesized dimensions. Based on these factor
results, the NCQ items were summed to yield eight subscales. These subscales
were here renamed to more accurately reflect their content. The eight
subscales, with the internal consistency alphas estimated from the total sample
employed in this study (n=1766) listed in
Noncognitive Variables
9
parentheses, are: self-assessment of academic motivation (ACAMOT, alpha=.56), perseverance (PER, alpha=.82), leadership (LEAD, alpha=.66), academic self-concept (ACASC, alpha=.55), long-range academic goals (LRG, alpha=.58), community service (COMM, alpha=.39), support for academic plans (SUPP, alpha=.57), and expected difficulty (DIFF). This last subscale was found to differ between black and white students. For white students this subscale loaded on items relating to expected difficulty in adapting and doing well. in college. It tended to show a pessimistic set of expectations. For the black samples, the same items loaded on this factor but items relating to expecting to experience racism also loaded. So for blacks the item tended to reflect poor expectations which are attributed to racism. For the white sample the expected difficulty subscale (DIFF) was found to have an alpha of .45, while for the black sample, this renamed expected racial difficulty subscale (RACDIFF) was found to have an alpha of .55. Overall, the listed alphas were felt to be reasonable considering that the subscales were from two to four items in length.
Insert Table 1 About Here
Noncognitive Variables
10
The graduation rates of each of the four year x race samples are presented in Table 1, as well, as the results of a z test ref the difference in the graduation rates between blacks and whites in the same entrant year. In both years, black students had a significantly lower rate of. graduation. Also, the graduation rates within race, across year were found to differ
significantly. White
students in the 1979 sample had a higher graduation rate than white students in
the 1980 sample (z= 2.22). The same result was found for the black student
samples (z=4.67).
These differences across sample
year could be attributable to samples characteristics, but more probably they
may be due to the inclusion of an added year. The graduation rates increase
with
added time. This
was especially true for the black subsamples. The
black student graduation rate seems to be related to the length of time used to
assess graduations Black students appear
to take
longer to complete college.
To
examine this longer time hypothesis, the number of students still enrolled but
not graduated after five and six years was tabulated and presented in Table 1.
Significantly more black students in, the 1980 sample were still enrolled and
working toward graduation than in the white sample, although the absolute
number is still low.
Noncognitive Variables
11
To examine which NCQ subscales were related to graduation, separate step-wise discriminate analyses (those subscales that did not significantly add to prediction were excluded) were conducted on each of the four year x race samples. The results of these analyses are summarized in Table 2. In none of the analyses did the SAT scores yield significant prediction of graduation, so only the NCQ subscales that significantly added to prediction are listed. As can be seen, for each of the black samples, there was a higher prediction of graduation found than for the white samples. Also, many more of the NCQ subscales were found to be related to graduation for black students than for white students. Given the greater difficulty in finding significant predictors in smaller samples than in larger samples these results are likely stronger then they appear. All the subscales that entered the equations loaded in a manner similar to the univariate relationships; thus any results due to suppressor effects can be ruled out.
For
the black samples, the most predictive subscales were the self-assessed
academic motivation (ACAMOT) perseverance (PER), having strong support for college
plans (SUPP), and demonstrated community service (COMM)., Academic
self-confidence (ACASC) and expectations of difficulty due to racism (RACDIFF)
were related to graduation in only one of the two black samples. For the white
Noncognitive Variables
12
students, only academic self-confidence and expected difficulty were related to graduation. Demonstrated community service was related to graduation only far one of the white samples
The
results ref this study indicate that student attitudes
and expectations at matriculation are related to graduation five and six years
later. The noncognitive dimensions assessed try the NCQ were found to
significantly related to graduation while the traditional measures of academic
ability (i.e., SAT) scores were not. The failure of SAT scores to predict
graduation could be attributed to a restriction of range at initial
matriculation. Assuming homoscedasticity not
admitting students based in part an SAT scares would restrict the range of
scores and thus lower any correlations. However, in the university where this study was
conducted, 90% of all in-state applicants are accepted. In-state students make
up roughly 85% of the student population at any time. So, the restriction of
range was not great. Another interpretation of the failure of SAT scores to be
related to graduation is that ability is not necessarily related to graduation.
To graduate, students are required to apply themselves and work fairly
diligently over an extended time period. It would be expected that a variety of
other dimensions would perhaps by better related to graduation, e.g.
noncognitive
Noncognitive Variables
13
dimensions.
Some
of these noncognitive dimensions were assessed by the Non-Cognitive
Questionnaire and were found to be related to graduation. These results were
true for white students but especially for black student These
results, together with those of Tracey and Sedlacek (1984, 1985), indicate that
black students expectations upon entry are fairly predictive of future academic
success, even up to six years later. This result is even more surprising given
that there was a restriction of range found in the noncognitive items due to
the loss of student data over the six years of this study. The standard
deviations of the NCQ items from the original sample were higher than were
those of samples where complete SAT and university records were obtained (i.e.,
the samples examined in Tracey and Sedlacek (1984, 1985 and here). The
attrition of students from the study was related to a reduction of variance in,
the dimensions of interest. Thus, the presence of these significant
NCQ-graduation results is important and counter to what would be expected if
the results were statistical artifacts.
It
is interesting to note the results that seam to imply that black students may
take longer to graduate than white students. This result is not surprising if
one views the experience of being a student in a predominately white
institution as being quite different fear black and white students. Black
students have a
14
different environment to respond to (assumes to be a more hostile, foreign care), and thus more energy could be devoted to meeting these extra challenges. Perhaps wise planning dictates that the process takes longer. If this pattern of black students taking longer is true, there are some clear implications regarding research and practice. First, measures of educational attainment using years of schooling would not be equivalent across race. More importantly, most colleges and universities are set up to promote movement through school in four years. If black students take longer, they will more likely feel isolated and persevering may be even more difficult. Perhaps accommodations to altered styles are required. Planning progress and services fox one group at' the expense of another is an example of institutional racism. These are some interesting implications of the result that black students may take longer to graduate. However, these results have limited generalizability (low n and conducted only at one school). so they are only preliminary.
The
main result of this study is the predictive validity of the NCQ with respect to
graduation. Given this, the NCQ could be used to assess students at initial
matriculation and those students who map be most likely to have difficulty
could be identified. Specific preventative programs could then be established
to increase the likelihood of academic success. However, caution must be taken
with respect try the possibility of stereotyping
Noncognitive Variables
15
students. Students change ready over their undergraduate years and need to be allowed to express their development in a variety of ways. These dimensions are only cues to possible difficulties, not a diagnosis.
There are many possible uses of the NCQ, but more research is needed. It could be a useful addition to our selection materials, but first it must be validated in this regard. The response set of applicants may he very different from the response set of already matriculated students. The instrument also needs to be further developed and perhaps increased in length to yield subscales with stronger psychometric support. Of course, to enhance generalizability, it should be validated at other institutions and with other racial groups. Studies of this mature are currently underway.
Finally,
give that sex x race differences in degree attainment found by
Noncognitive Variables
16
Arken, L. R. (1964). The prediction of academic success
and early attrition by means of a multiple-choice biographical inventory.
American Educational Research Journal, 1,127-135.
Astin, A. W. (1975). Preventing students from dropping
out.
Astin., A. W. (1978). Four
critical years,
Astin, A. W. (1982). Minorities in American higher
education.
Beasley, S. R., & Sease W. A,
(1974). Using biographical data as a predictor of
academic success for black university students. Journal of College
Student Personnel, 15 201-206.
Clark,
K. B., Plotkin, L. (1964). The
Negro student at integrated colleges.
Farver, A. S., Sedlacek, W. E., Brooks, G. G., Jr. (1975). Longitudinal
predictions of university grades for blacks and whites. Measurement
and Evaluation in Guidance, 7, 243-250.
Fleming,
J. (1984). Blacks in college: A comparative study of students' success in black
anal white institutions.
Gelso, C. J., & Rowell, D.
(1967). Academic adjustment and persistence of students with. marginal academic potential.
Noncognitive Variables
17
Journal of Counseling Psychology, 14, 478-481.
Gibbs,
J. L. (1973). Black students/white university:
Different expectations. Personnel and Guidance Journal, 51, 463-469.
Goodrich,
A. (1978, March). A date-driven minority student retention
model for faculty and administrators in predominately white institutions.
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Collage Personnel
Association,
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542-547.
Loo, C. M., & Rolison, G. (1986). Alienation of ethnic
minority students at a predominately white University. Journal of
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Messick, S.
(1979). Potential uses of noncognitive measurement in education. Journal
of Educational Psychology, 71, 281-292.
Nelson, R. B., Scott, T. B., & Bryan W. A. (1984). Precollege characteristics and
early college experiences as predictors of freshman year persistence. Journal
of College Student Personnel, 25, 50-54.
Pascerella, E. T., & Chapman, D. W. (1983). A
multi-institutional path analytic validation of Tinto's
model of college withdrawal. American Educational Research Journal,
20, 87-102.
Pascarella, E. T., Duby, P. B., & Iverson, B. K. (1983). A test and reconceptualization of a theoretical model of college
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withdrawal in a commuter institution setting. Sociology of Education, 56,
88-100.
Pentages, T.J.,
& Creedon, C. F. (1978). Studies of college
attrition: 1950-1975. Review of Educational Research, 48, 49-101.
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Pruitt,
A.S., (1973). Minority Admissions to Large Universities: A response. Journal
of College Student Personnel, 14, 22-24.
Sedlacek,
W.E., & Brooks, G.C., Jr. (1976). Racism in American education: A model
for change.
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American Educational Research Journal, 22, 501-525.
|
Table 1: Graduation and Enrollment Rates of Each
Sample as of July 1985 |
||||||
|
|
|
Graduated |
Not Graduated |
|
||
|
Sample |
N |
n |
% |
n |
% |
z |
|
1979 White |
1137 |
778 |
68 |
359 |
32 |
|
|
1979 Black |
125 |
69 |
55 |
56 |
45 |
|
|
1980 White |
415 |
257 |
62 |
158 |
38 |
|
|
1980 Black |
89 |
20 |
23 |
69 |
77 |
|
|
|
|
Enrolled |
Not Enrolled |
|
||
|
|
|
n |
% |
n |
% |
z |
|
1979 White |
1137 |
50 |
4 |
1087 |
96 |
0.52 |
|
1979 Black |
125 |
6 |
5 |
119 |
95 |
|
|
1980 White |
415 |
30 |
7 |
385 |
93 |
2.17* |
|
1980 Black |
89 |
12 |
12 |
77 |
88 |
|
|
Table 2: Summary of the Discriminant
Analyses Using Graduation as the Criterion |
||||
|
Sample |
N 1 |
Canonical R |
Variables Entered |
Standardized Beta Weights |
|
1979 White |
1038 |
0.22 |
ACASC |
0.75 |
|
|
|
|
DIFF |
-0.32 |
|
|
|
|
COMM |
0.32 |
|
1979 Black |
106 |
0.44 |
PER |
0.74 |
|
|
|
|
ACAMOT |
0.57 |
|
|
|
|
COMM |
0.53 |
|
|
|
|
RACDIFF |
-0.38 |
|
|
|
|
SUPP |
0.21 |
|
1980 White |
377 |
0.28 |
ACASC |
0.93 |
|
|
|
|
DIFF |
-0.34 |
|
1980 Black |
68 |
0.38 |
ACASC |
0.68 |
|
|
|
|
ACAMOT |
0.55 |
|
|
|
|
PER |
0.43 |
|
|
|
|
COMM |
0.33 |
|
|
|
|
SUPP |
0.27 |
1 These N’s include only
those students from whom complete NCQ data were available.
Using
Noncognitive Variables by Race